Flood risks

aerial image of flooded community

MIT is working collaboratively to address the risks of climate change and its anticipated impacts on the campus and community, including more frequent flooding, extreme precipitation, rising sea levels, and extreme and prolonged heat events.

Flood risk projections 

MIT uses the City of Cambridge projections as a planning basis for campus resiliency and adaptation because these represent the best available, locally-scaled projections; align the campus with local regulatory resiliency planning standards; and enable effective planning across campus and City scales.  MIT will continue to evaluate new and emerging research to inform its climate resiliency and adaptation planning. 

 

Precipitation-driven flood risk from Increasingly severe rain storms

Flood projections from the City of Cambridge Climate Change Vulnerability Assessment and Climate Resilient Plan downscale projections from global climate models and show that the most immediate and near-term flood risk facing MIT is the increase in frequency of extreme rainfall which can cause urban surface flooding by overwhelming stormwater infrastructure.  By 2070, compared to today, the City of Cambridge is likely to experience:

  1. An additional 1.5 inches of rainfall during 24-hour rain events with a 10-year return (or 10% annual) probability of occurrence
  2. An additional 2.8 inches of rainfall during 24-hour rain events with a 100-year (or 1% annual) probability of occurrence 

This graphic below illustrates how today’s “100 year” or 1% annual probability event yielded about 8” of rain over 24 hours during the rainfall baseline averages of 1971 through 2000.  Under a changing climate, 8” of rain over 24 hours is projected to become much more common by 2070 with a frequency closer to a “25 year” or 4% annual probability of return.  Similar shifts are anticipated with today’s 4% annual probability storm becoming closer to a 10% annual probability event by 2070.


Changing flood predictions for Cambridge (City of Cambridge, Climate Vulnerability Assessment, 2015)

Inland floods
  • Day of rain: A 24-hour rain event over Cambridge, likely during fall/spring, that overwhelms drainage infrastructure's capacity to drain water away from Cambridge. This event would likely cover the entire Boston region.
  • Flash flood: A 1–3-hour intense rain event (aka micro burst or cloud burst), likely during summer that overwhelms drainage infrastructure. This event may only cover a portion of campus.
Up-river floods

Up-river rainfall: A rain event upstream in the Charles River watershed could raise water levels in the Charles River by MIT (up to 3 days after the rain event), causing river water to push up MIT/Cambridge drainage pipes and surcharge into streets.

What is MIT doing to be more resilient to flooding?

MIT Climate Resiliency Dashboard

Fellows, researchers, climate modelers, scientists, and engineers at MIT and in Cambridge and Boston are helping inform data-driven flood risk planning for the campus and region. Explore MIT's Climate Resiliency Dashboard, an informational tool enabling the MIT community to understand risk to the Cambridge campus from flooding under both today's climate and a future, changed climate. 

MIT Campus Flood Risk Model

Informed by the MIT Flood Vulnerability StudyBuilding Porosity Hunt, and Sustainability Stormwater and Landscape Ecology Plan, MIT has prepared a campus-based flood risk model that  integrates campus flood risk modeling with the City of Cambridge Flood Risk Model.  This combined model provides a comprehensive understanding of current and future risks to a range of flood scenarios including precipitation, riverine, sea level rise and storm surge events.  Since MIT is also undergoing a significant capital renewal, this dynamic two-dimensional model is also serving as an adaptive planning tool for informing current and future flood risk based on new campus growth. The model is updated every three years.

Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise (SS/SLR) Flood Risk  

The first Charles River Dam (built 1910)  in Cambridge currently protects the MIT campus from Boston Harbor storm surges and extreme high tides. However, the dam is at risk of being overtopped by a storm surge compounded by rising sea levels within 20 to 30 years because the design did not account for sea level rise due to a changing climate—–which for the Boston Harbor area could be a 1-foot1 rise by 2030 and 4 feet by 2070.  
The City of Cambridge has been working with the Massachusetts Department of Conservation and Recreation and other municipalities and stakeholders in the region, regarding the potential for strategic interventions that reduce regional flood exposure and benefit Cambridge and 14 other municipalities. Planning and design are is already in progress for several of the 10 interventions, led by individual communities.                       
 

storm surge sea level rise map

Storm Surge and Sea Level Rise

A hurricane or nor'easter (fall/winter) that blows a surge of water from the ocean into Boston Harbor and around or overtop the Charles River dam, pushing river water up MIT/Cambridge drainage pipes and surcharge into streets. This is a probable event beyond 2050 and would impact the Boston region.